IDC Sees Healthy Worldwide PC Market
- By Scott Bekker
- December 07, 2000
Worldwide PC shipments are expected to reach 40.15 million
units in the fourth quarter, according to recently released forecasts from
industry analysts IDC
. Despite slowing in the
U.S. and European markets, the report shows that emerging markets will more
than pick up the slack.
“Although it’s clear consumer demand in the United States is
weakening, buying in other regions remains strong,” said Loren Loverde,
director of IDC’s Worldwide PC Tracker program.
In the United States, consumer spending was strong through
the third quarter, but early warning signs point to a reduced consumer market
in the fourth quarter. IDC feels that consumer demand in the U.S. market will
remain depressed for two to three quarters before picking up again.
In Western Europe, consumer sales were healthy, while the
corporate sector appeared to be to blame for lowered estimates. The slower
uptake of business IT investment in the second half led IDC to lower
fourth-quarter predictions for this market to 15.1 percent year on year from a
previous prediction of 19 percent.
Asia/Pacific continued to grow aggressively, with year on
year growth of 42.7 percent in the third quarter, surpassing expectations by
6.5 percentage points. As a result of larger than expected growth in the
Asia/Pacific market, IDC’s revised forecasts for fourth-quarter shipment growth
are now at 33.4 percent year on year.
Fourth-quarter growth projections were also revised upward
in the Japanese market, to 29.4 percent year on year, following a slower than
expected third quarter. Strong consumer demand from repeat and first-time
buyers, as well as recovering business investments, drive the market there.
The portables market was strong in the third quarter, with
worldwide shipments up 33 percent year on year. The U.S., Western Europe, and
Asia/Pacific all strongly outperformed expectations, and IDC expects the
portables market to grow by 32 percent worldwide in the fourth quarter.
The revised forecasts show total PC shipment slipping to
16.6 percent worldwide for 2001, down from 18.8 percent in 2000. Worldwide
growth is expected to slow further in the longer term as both business and
consumer market saturation increases and growth in emerging markets moderates. –
Scott Bekker is editor in chief of Redmond Channel Partner magazine.