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Gartner: Windows 10 Won't Boost PC Market in 2015

Spending on computing devices is expected to decline by nearly 6 percent this year, and the upcoming release of Windows 10 isn't likely to offer any relief.

That's the upshot of a recent publication by Gartner Inc. titled "Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2012-2019, 2Q15 Update," which the research and consulting firm summarized in an announcement Monday.

Gartner expects there will be a 5.7 percent decrease in overall computing device spending this year, totaling $606 billion. The arrival of Windows 10 on July 29 won't bump up that spending, according to Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner:

We do not expect the global PC market to recover until 2016. The release of Windows 10 on 29th July will contribute to a slowing professional demand for mobile PCs and premium ultramobiles in 2015, as lifetimes extend by three months. However, as suppliers and buyers adjust to new prices, Windows 10 could boost replacements during 2016.

Microsoft has implied that Windows 10 devices could appear from OEMs as early as the July 29 release date for Windows 10. Market availability of Windows 10 machines, though, will depend on individual OEM plans. It's likely that OEMs will be targeting the traditional fall back-to-school time frame. Microsoft's goal is to get 1 billion devices running Windows 10.

The decline in computing device spending expected by Gartner is partly due to currency devaluations against the U.S. dollar. This year, 2.5 billion computer devices are expected to get shipped worldwide, representing a 1.5 percent increase year over year. However, the device growth is mostly happening in the mobile phone market, which itself is slowing to 3.3 percent growth this year due to "weaker performance in China." Gartner predicts 2.4 billion mobile phones will get shipped in 2015.

The global PC market will continue its downward pace this year to 300 million units, down 4.5 percent year over year.

The "ultramobile segment," which Gartner defines as "tablets and clamshells," will decrease 5.3 percent year over year to 214 million units.

About the Author

Kurt Mackie is senior news producer for the 1105 Enterprise Computing Group.