Pender's Blog

Blog archive

RCPU's 2008 Predictions

We hate predictions here at RCPU. Most of the ones we read tend to sound kind of pompous and obvious -- pundits love to predict that the earth will continue to rotate on its axis and then cover themselves in glory when, hey!, they turn out to be right. Either that, or analysts and other pundits go off and make a bunch of predictions in December that nobody remembers (nor checks for accuracy) a year later.

Still, it's the week after Christmas, and we're just not sure what else to do. So, to go along with the 2007 reviews (last chance for Vista bashing!) and the 2008 crystal balls, we offer our simple, humble, completely obvious and probably useless predictions for 2008:

Enterprises will get serious about adopting Vista. This is the only bit of punditry we'll delve into that has even a hint of risk of inaccuracy, but all signs point to Vista actually gaining a foothold in the enterprise in 2008. Look for more in the January issue of RCP (what a tease!), but heed our words and those of the analysts when we say that Service Pack 1, corporate hardware refreshes and the looming end-of-life for XP will finally drive widespread adoption of Microsoft's downtrodden operating system. We're not saying that Vista will overtake XP in 2008, just that it won't be shut out of the enterprise the way it was in 2007.

The wild card here? A massive recession that halts IT spending in its tracks.

Pundits will continue to predict the demise of Microsoft. Well, it happens every year, doesn't it? Steve Ballmer wasn't going to make it through 2006 at CEO. The departure of Bill Gates was going to leave Microsoft without a strategic vision. Competition from Google and open source was going to sink Redmond. Well, guess what? Although it does face more challenges than perhaps every before, Microsoft is still the monster of the software industry, which leads us to our next prediction....

Microsoft (and its partners!) will continue to rake in the cash. Remember, there are only three things in life that are inevitable: death, taxes and Microsoft making massive, jaw-dropping amounts of money. Microsoft's last fiscal quarter was a blockbuster (the best in almost a decade, essentially), and we're guessing -- sorry, predicting -- that the fire hose of cash pointed at Redmond will continue to spray money. So, don't listen to the haters -- Microsoft will still be our staggeringly wealthy software overlord in 2008. Just embrace it.

Oh, and we're pretty confident that the earth will continue to rotate on its axis, too. But, you know, we don't like to make predictions.

Have a prediction for 2008? Send it to Oh, and happy New Year!

Posted by Lee Pender on December 27, 2007 at 11:54 AM