Let's just jump ahead a few years -- maybe more than a few, maybe not -- into
a world in which Software as a Service (SaaS) has made the operating system
a commodity, if not totally obsolete.
This doesn't really take that much imagination, does it? What with Google
Chrome lining up against IE and Firefox (and Safari, we suppose), it's clear
-- and has been for a while, really -- that the forthcoming battle in the software
industry won't be over software at all but over online applications, SaaS, cloud
computing ... whatever you want to call it. So we're not going too far afield
here. We all know that this is happening.
What we're wondering, though, is how important the browser (already a market
share headache for Microsoft) is in this whole scenario. Very important,
you say? Well, sure, because it's the conduit to the applications and data that
rest on some far-off server. Again, in our hypothetical world, the OS is a commodity
if it exists at all. Really, all we do in this future world -- and this, of
course, is really possible today -- is hop on a terminal of some sort, open
a browser (or just go straight into it) and get working.
Right now, in 2008, the browser itself is a big deal. Security, interface,
stability -- they're all important factors that the new combatants in the browser
wars are trying to improve. What we want to know is: How long will it be this
way? After all, nobody really makes money off of browsers, right? They're free.
And it's hard to imagine anybody paying for one now that they've been free for
such a long time. There's no real browser revenue model.
So, in our brave new world, we can see the browser itself being kind of like
the operating system: a commodity, or just a window (as opposed to a Window).
Everything will happen in the "cloud," at the datacenter -- even the
basic browsing functionality. Right? Doesn't that make sense? Surely lots of
other people have observed this.
What "it" will really be about is the applications residing on a
server in a data center somewhere -- the word processor, spreadsheet, video editor,
security applications, whatever -- all available on a subscription basis with
some level of storage. You know the stuff -- Google Apps and Office Live Workspace
(sort of, although the idea of the death of client-hosted office must still
scare
Microsoft to death) bundled with whatever add-on applications or functionality
partners can create and host or have hosted.
So, the point is this: Enjoy the new browser wars while they last because,
just like the OS wars, they won't go on forever. In the post-browser-war reality,
it'll be the cloud that matters, not the aircraft that gets us up there. That's
why Microsoft shouldn't freak out too much about Chrome; it should figure out
how to use Office to compete with Google and others on both cost and functionality
in the cloud.
What's your vision for cloud computing? What role do you see the browser or
the OS playing? Let us know at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on September 04, 20081 comments
Despite what we've been telling you here for months -- and, to be fair, the
vast majority of e-mails
we get still bash it -- not everybody is unhappy with the forlorn Vista operating
system. We've run tons of negative e-mails on Vista, and we've received some
more very good ones recently.
But in the interest of some equal time, and because we said we would, today
we're giving you positive -- or at least not screamingly negative -- e-mails
about Vista. Some of these, as always, we had to edit for length, but the basic
ideas are intact. Let's get started:
Richard starts us off by saying that if we don't like Vista, we shouldn't blame
Microsoft...we should probably blame ourselves:
"Vista's 'failure' is a communications failure between Microsoft
and its customers, between Microsoft and its partners, and mostly between
Microsoft and its Tier 1 OEMs and ISVs. The entire channel was NOWHERE NEAR
prepared for Vista's release. And while we see that a few unwise compromises
were made between key Microsoft executives and their OEM and ISV counterparts
vis-à-vis which CPUs and chipsets were 'acceptable' for the Vista experience,
almost everything they baked into Vista came out of customer feedback and
demand: bulletproof security, security best practices (least privilege), and
a much better user experience that, regrettably, demanded better hardware.
"I'll tell you too what I don't miss: I don't miss never seeing a
blue screen since I've owned Vista -- something I could never say about XP,
Windows Server 2000 or 2003...or even NT 3.51 or 4.0, for that matter."
We agree that a lot of third parties dropped the ball on Vista. The extent
to which Microsoft tried to work with them on holding the ball (how far can
we stretch that metaphor?) is another topic of discussion altogether. Anyway,
Zenner strikes a similar tone and also suggests that XP love is more like a
sickness:
"Holding on to XP (especially when required to pay for 'downgrade'
rights) is self-defeating, bordering on mental illness. I will agree that
in its initial release, driver support was a major headache, not mention the
requirement to 'finally' retire a lot of 8-, 16-, even some wholly inadequate
32-bit peripherals. The fact is, hardware as well as software were being hobbled
by backward compatibility. X86-64 processors have opened up a completely new
benchmark for PC performance; there is no need to continue with the arbitrary
designation of workstation vs. PC. PCs, even laptops, have evolved to the
point that it's almost impossible to purchase an under-powered computer anymore,
yet clients (and closet Luddites) are refusing to step up to the challenge.
"The biggest complaint I still hear seems to be a lament that Vista
is 'too' good. Finally, Microsoft creates what everyone was complaining about
-- security, stability and defaults that start secure and allow the user to
decide how much compromise he is willing to endure for connectivity and communication.
Despite being given nearly everything that magazine writers, governments (national
and international) and business concerns have lobbied for, we are faced with
a consumer revolt, and what is it they are whining about this time? That it's
too difficult having to make a few minor adjustments to reap all the benefits.
That driver compatibility (which peripheral providers had been warned years
ago would be needed) is somehow under the control of Microsoft. Maybe complaining
to the root cause entities is not nearly as satisfying as continuing to find
something, anything, to justify mistaken animus toward Microsoft."
Maybe, Zenner, there is some anti-Microsoft sentiment at work in the press
(although we try to remain objective here), but XP is also a Microsoft OS and
people seem to like it well enough. Sometimes familiarity breeds contempt; in
this case, it seems as though the opposite is at work.
Grant, writing from South Africa (we love contributions from outside the U.S.,
by the way), suggests that hanging on to XP is not a good idea...and that Vista
is not so bad:
"I have deployed a number of Vista Business machines with very few
problems. Applications are catching up fast (except those that still write
in Cobol). By downloading the latest drivers from the PC manufacturers' sites,
SP1 downloads gracefully. The users seem to like the new interface and features.
From my point of view (IT administrator), Vista is good, because it is so
much more secure than XP.
"Recommending to customers that they 'downgrade' Vista to XP is irresponsible
and short-sighted (as well as lazy and selfish, because they know XP well,
so it's easier to maintain, and they don't have to learn how to maintain the
new OS (yet)).
"If Windows 7 comes out in 2010, add two years for stabilisation
and user acceptance, we're looking at running XP for the next four years.
You've got to be joking! Imagine what Apple (Cougar, Lion or whatever) will
look like by that time. What would Microsoft's credibility be then?"
Good question, Grant. We're sure some folks in Redmond are wondering the same
thing. Or maybe cloud computing will make the OS mostly irrelevant and make
the browser the only environment we need.
Finally, Dave's just happy all around with Vista:
"My system starts up, honestly, in about half the time XP took. Task
Manager -- take a look; it's been greatly enhanced. All the extra apps that
are included are great additions for novice and power users. The organization
of the Start Menu is wonderful. There's nothing worse than looking at three
columns of installed programs on an XP machine. Oh, and if you like Apple
cutesy, the dream scene desktop background rocks. Honestly, after two weeks,
I'm cruising around Vista without a hiccup."
More power to you, Dave. We're glad it's working out for you.
We're still looking for Vista tales; we'll run them -- positive and negative
-- from time to time here. Send them to [email protected].
If you haven't seen yours yet, don't give up. It might still appear. And thanks
to everybody who has contributed.
Posted by Lee Pender on August 28, 20081 comments
With the news that '90s icon and TV syndication legend Jerry Seinfeld is going
to help Microsoft
try
to rescue Vista, we asked you this week to name your ideal Microsoft spokesperson.
Here's what we got:
Brad gets us off to a potentially controversial start:
"I suggest one word, or really one letter: W. After all, he'll be
looking for work, anyway. Maybe the copy could read something like
this: Hi, do you know me? Or maybe I should ask, 'Do you loathe me?' As the
leader of the free world, I had to make some tough, unpopular decisions. So
that's why Microsoft asked me to be their spokesman..."
Brad, we try to stay apolitical here at RCPU, aside from when we're blasting
the European Union (and we figure that it's fair game). So, without making
a political comment, we'll just say...we love this and find it hilarious. Tough,
unpopular decisions, indeed. He'd certainly get attention.
Sam chimes in with an interesting prospect:
"Morgan Freeman. Why not? He has 'The Bucket List,' and he has been
God."
Hmm, now that's intriguing. Seinfeld might be a relic these days, but Morgan
Freeman has a certain aura of timelessness and that familiar voice. He also
inspires a sense of confidence and familiarity that Vista could use. (Although
it strikes us that he's surely doing lots of voice-overs already.) We're still
sort of leaning toward W, though, with Brad as script writer.
Finally, Richard has a one-word answer: "Satan."
Heh, well, Richard, your e-mail made us laugh out loud. That's got to be worth
something. We're not sure what, exactly...but something. Anyway, thanks to all
of y'all for taking the time to respond.
Have any more suggestions? Keep sending them to [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on August 28, 20080 comments
Apparently the shaky economy might be affecting IT hiring, but it's
not
causing a downturn in IT spending. Go figure...
Posted by Lee Pender on August 27, 20080 comments
So, Forrester Research is out there now saying that Vista
might
just conquer the enterprise after all, and maybe fairly soon.
Well, maybe so. But we've heard
this sort of thing before, haven't we? Vista's always just around the corner
from breaking out and becoming the next XP (just as XP eventually became the
next Windows 2000). If it's true that one-third of Vista licenses end
up being downgraded to XP, we won't hold our breath on Vista taking over
the world.
Really, though, we're just using this entry to tell you that tomorrow we'll
be running positive -- yes, positive -- comments about Vista. (Hey, we told
you we'd run them if we got them.) So, send your thoughts to [email protected].
Oh, and also tomorrow -- in what should be an electrifying Reader Feedback
issue of RCPU (you just have to love late August) -- we'll be running your suggestions
on which
celebrity would make the ideal Microsoft spokesperson. So shoot those our
way, too, at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on August 27, 20080 comments
OK, it's sort of funny, isn't it? Linux superstar Red Hat
got
hacked. Yeah, it's funny.
Posted by Lee Pender on August 26, 20080 comments
We don't want to pile on here, but the last week in August might be the slowest
news week of the year outside of the last two weeks of December, so here goes:
We love "Seinfeld" reruns here at RCPU, just as we love TV Land, classic
tunes on our iPod -- uh, we mean Zune...ah, to heck with it, we do mean iPod
-- and movies that remind us of years gone by.
But we're weird that way here. Your editor DVRs old episodes of "WKRP
in Cincinnati" (although he already owns all 90 episodes on DVD with the
original music -- just with poor video quality) and watches them with the same
gusto with which he downs a full Southern (or English) breakfast. On a brief
road trip this past weekend, more than a few Creedence Clearwater Revival songs
figured among the tunes of choice -- and we still have no idea who the Jonas
Brothers are, although we keep seeing their images on T-shirts. Just today,
we read that someone named Daddy Yankee had endorsed John McCain for president
and wondered why George Steinbrenner would be so interested in the race for
the White House.
So, in recruiting
Jerry Seinfeld to do an ad campaign for Vista, Microsoft has hit a nostalgic
nerve with this segment of the 30-something market -- although it's not as though
we can't see Jerry at his best twice a day in reruns of his sitcom. (And, really,
George was the funny one, anyway.) We're officially, gleefully out of touch
with pop culture here at RCPU -- a fact you won't have missed if you've ever
paid attention to our rotting cultural references -- and we like it that way.
It's too bad, though, that we're not the audience Microsoft is trying to reach
with its "Windows, Not Walls" (our response: "What?") campaign.
And, in case you've been sequestered without TV or Internet since last Thursday,
nobody else likes the idea of Seinfeld pitching Vista, either. There are approximately
4 billion blog posts about the topic floating out there now -- 99 percent of
them negative, from what we can tell (there's a pretty representative wrap-up
here).
We've said before that Microsoft needs to stop
trying to be cool, but here we have to say it again. Redmond, Apple roasted
you with those Mac Guy ads, and everybody knows it. Apple is cool, and everybody
knows it. And you're not -- and never will be. Because being the gorilla in
the market isn't cool. Being the enterprise's OS of choice isn't cool. Being
Steve Ballmer's company (as opposed to one run by Zen master Steve Jobs) is
definitely not cool. But being all those things has been pretty darn profitable
and probably will be for the foreseeable future.
Vista's problems were a lack of application compatibility and onerous hardware
requirements -- plus the fact that many people didn't see a reason to ditch
XP for Vista. A lack of coolness was -- and is -- way down the list of factors
holding Vista back from mainstream public acceptance. But still, Microsoft is
spending $300 million to try to fix the wrong problem...and Redmond can't even
get that right, passing over the stars of the moment (Ben Stiller? Seth Rogin?
Steve Carell? Chris Rock?) for a guy who, while likeable enough, conjures up
memories of the era of enormous cell phones and molasses-slow, dial-up Internet
connections.
Again, we don't mean to pile on here (although we don't have much better to
do). But Microsoft, enough is enough. Embrace your nerdiness, or throw us a
total curve with somebody like Carlos Mencia or Bill Engvall (or a woman, for
heaven's sake -- what a radical concept) as your spokesperson. But don't try
to be cool. It's still not working.
Who would your idea Microsoft spokesperson be? Tell us at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on August 26, 20081 comments
It's kind of been
(bash)
Vista week again here at RCPU, so we might as well carry the theme to its
undeniable conclusion: reader e-mails! Hey, we wouldn't run these if we didn't
get them. And we'll run pro-Vista e-mails...as soon as we get some more of them.
In the meantime, Ronald is up first:
"I am a Microsoft partner; however, I cannot in good conscience support
Vista. Even after Service Pack 1, Vista does not network properly with XP.
In addition, its file structure seems to lose files and folders for no apparent
reason. Vista is also far slower than XP at opening programs as well as opening
folders. Most of my small-business accounts have refused to switch to Vista.
I am now custom-building machines with XP for them. When my supply of XP runs
out, I do not know if I can sell them Vista systems. I have lost some home
users to Macs due to my former customers' frustration with Vista.
"Microsoft must improve the networkability of Vista and fix the lost
file problems and speed issues. If they cannot, they should bring back XP.
To save face, they can make some graphic changes and rename it to XP Pro Advanced."
Lost some customers to the Mac, huh? More on that in a minute. For now, we
like the idea of XP Pro Advanced.
Nat sounds a lot like Ronald in his e-mail:
"I have tried Vista personally, and I have installed it on a few
of my customers' computers. I gave up on it myself when I couldn't print to
the lower paper tray of my office printer and when my mailing label documents
would not open in Office 2007. I am an avid user of the Windows Explorer in
XP, and I like it. The version in Vista is awful; I kept getting errors when
I was trying to move groups of files. The Control Panel also had me baffled
with all of the re-named items. Customers also complained, and I think that
I only have one that has stuck it out -- the rest have had me take them back
to XP. None of my commercial customers has switched; I still sell them XP
on new machines that I deliver."
Nat, we hear you...but the question is, does Microsoft? Maybe it will if
Rusty's e-mail is a sign of things to come:
"You said that Apple and Linux are not any real threat to Microsoft
in the enterprise. Well, it is interesting that I am seeing other articles
that are talking about how Apple is starting to get enterprise penetration.
Also, when I sit out front of the Apple store here, I see Macs going out the
door several per hour. Also, Apple is posting amazing increases in sales compared
to this quarter last year.
"I think people don't understand the ground swell that is starting
to happen. I work in computers and have for more than 20 years. I am at the
point now that we are starting to change all the computers in the house to
Macs. I know several co-workers who are making the switch, too. In the one
of the most recent Reader's Digest magazines, there was a listing of
the things true computer people will tell you to fix your computer problems,
and one of them was to buy a Mac. Although I don't see Microsoft toppling
any time soon (people have been predicting similar things for IBM forever,
too), I do see it continuing to lose market share to Apple (and Linux) month
by month. I also think that Vista is one of the biggest reasons for the migration
now, kind of like the final straw."
Rusty, great comments. Let's be clear about what we meant regarding Microsoft
not being threatened. From what we're reading (and what you're reading, too,
apparently), yes, Macs are making an impact in the enterprise and taking market
share from Microsoft. (In the consumer space, its more traditional realm, the
Mac seems even stronger.)
By saying that the Mac wasn't a serious threat, we meant that we don't see
Microsoft's market share getting hacked down to, say, 50 or even 75 percent
any time soon. It's still 90-plus, as far as we know, which gives it a long
way to fall before Microsoft has to really start freaking out. There are just
so many companies with big investments in Windows that it's hard to imagine
Apple or Linux eating away at Microsoft's enterprise dominance in any serious
way in the next few years.
However, we can easily imagine the SMB market moving toward the Mac and Linux,
and if Windows 7 is as big a dud as Vista, some bigger shops might look in those
directions as well. So, we take your point (and you did say that you don't see
Microsoft toppling any time soon) -- Windows is on the way down (for now, largely
thanks to Vista), and other alternatives are on the way up. We'd agree with
that. We just don't think that the change will be as much revolution as evolution.
And we're not ready to count Microsoft out...yet. By the way, we love the Mac
at RCPU, in case we haven't mentioned that in the past.
Thanks to all who contributed to this topic. It remains one of our favorites.
We had a couple of late e-mails that we couldn't sneak in, but we'll try to
get to those later. And we're always open for more Vista e-mails at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on August 21, 20086 comments