When Microsoft released Vista a few years ago, we trumpeted the launch event with a post in RCPU simply titled, "Vista!" It was, we suppose, meant to convey some sense of excitement about the arrival of the long-awaited operating system that would gracefully lift the desktop crown from the head of XP and reign over us with benevolence and majesty.
But instead of reigning over us, Vista rained on us. It poured application incompatibilities, outrageous hardware requirements, draconian user access control and all sorts of other big, wet drops of nastiness on our heads. Well, about three years and many, many jokes at Vista's expense later, we find ourselves writing an edition of RCPU for the coronation of Windows 7, which will try to wrest the OS crown from the arthritic but mighty hands of Good King XP.
For this launch, though, we're toning our enthusiasm down considerably. Yes, we've heard that Windows 7 is great. We feel fairly confident based on reviews, reader feedback and analyst babble that Windows 7 will do what Vista couldn't: become the next flagship Microsoft OS and probably the next default OS for personal and corporate computing.
Before we go on, let's restate one thing that everybody who reads RCPU must know: We do not work for Microsoft. We do not promote Microsoft, nor do we serve to promote Microsoft. We are advocates for companies in the Microsoft channel -- our target audience -- but we endeavor always to cover Microsoft objectively and without bias, positive or negative. In a few Web searches, your editor has found comments on other sites suggesting that RCPU is somehow a promotional vehicle for Microsoft and its products. That's just not the case. Most of you know this, of course, but those who don't should learn it.
That's not the reason, though, that we're taking it easy on Windows 7 hype. For one, today's launch is just a formality; many, if not most, of our readers have at least used Windows 7, and there are no doubt large numbers of you who run the OS every day. Beyond that, the launch of a new version of Windows isn't what it used to be. It might still feel a bit like a coronation, but the empire is shrinking.
Windows is still the king of desktop computing, an OS that really competes only against itself (for now) and continues to dominate mainly because IT people and other workers alike are used to it and don't want to go through the hassle and expense of implementing something else. The Microsoft channel also has a lot to do with Windows' success; we're pretty confident in stating that it's easier (and probably cheaper) to find a Microsoft MVP partner who can perform implementations or fix problems than it is to find a Linux or Mac expert.
So, Windows 7, if it's not a repeat of Vista, will probably take over the OS world. But for how long will Microsoft be king of the software mountain? And when will other computing models -- specifically cloud computing -- start to make the OS itself irrelevant, thereby making Windows' dominance a fond memory for Microsoft and its partners?
Just this week, obviously timed for the Windows 7 launch, IBM and Canonical (the distributor of Ubuntu Linux) revealed that they've teamed up to provide a relatively inexpensive cloud-Linux combo for the desktop called IBM Client for Smart Work. Now, we don't really suspect that this offering, intriguing as it is, will make a serious dent in Windows' market share.
In fact, if Windows really is going to cease to be emperor of the desktop at some point, it'll likely die the death of a thousand cuts rather than get bludgeoned in the head with one single offering from a competitor. Google, IBM, Linux, cloud computing in general, even the Mac -- they're all making inroads into the enterprise, and as their ecosystems grow and gain influence, the undeniable expense of Windows compared to other alternatives will start to make less and less sense.
The real strength of Windows, then, is you, the Microsoft partner. It's your expertise, availability and numbers -- along with the familiarity companies have with Windows itself -- that will keep Microsoft on top in the enterprise and make Windows 7 a success (again, as long as Windows 7 isn't another Vista -- nobody could fix that).
Of course, at the same time as they're moving clients to Windows 7, partners also have to be adapting to changing computing models, preparing for the onslaught of cloud and mobile technologies that are already here and will only grow in the future. In the meantime, though, today represents less a day of celebration than a day of commitment.
Partners, the work of pulling Microsoft out of its funk and keeping it on top of the software market (and filling your wallets at the same time) is beginning anew with today's release of Windows 7. It's your job to make sure that Windows is able to step down as emperor when its time comes rather than being deposed. Hopefully Microsoft has given you something to work with in the form of Windows 7. But now is the time to work, not to celebrate.
Have any comments about Windows 7 to add to the huge pile we already have? Send them to [email protected]. Your thoughts are always welcome.
Posted by Lee Pender on October 22, 200918 comments
Profit and sales declines will likely be the order of the day again when Microsoft announces earnings later this week. As always, RCPU will be back next week with an analysis of how Microsoft did and probably a wistful goodbye to jokes about Vista.
Posted by Lee Pender on October 22, 20090 comments
The good news is that things should pick up in 2010, but here's the bad news (if you're ready for it) from the Wall Street Journal article linked above:
"While spending growth is expected next year, spending won't return to 2008 levels until 2012."
Oh dear. That doesn't sound like good news at all. Well, at least things won't get any worse than they are now...right? Right?
Posted by Lee Pender on October 22, 20090 comments
If you're a partner who stands in any way to profit from companies moving to Windows 7, you have to love hearing stuff like this. The analyst honchos at Forrester are telling IT departments that the time to move to Windows 7 is now.
Well, more specifically, the Forrester folks are saying that IT organizations should start planning their migrations now. They give a few not illogical reasons for their recommended urgency, which are, in a nutshell, these:
- Microsoft is going to end XP support and make you migrate, anyway. "Extended support" for the legendary OS begins in July, and patches will stop altogether in April 2014, which is not an immensely long time from now, especially considering that XP will be well more than a decade old by then.
- Downgrade rights from Windows 7 to XP won't last forever (they'll last 18 months after launch or until the first service pack for 7 arrives, whichever comes first), so buying XP for new PCs could eventually get expensive.
- Applications developed for XP won't be around forever, either. Eventually, Windows 7 will become what Vista never became -- the new default Microsoft operating system.
All of that, of course, sounds reasonable enough, even if that third point seems a bit presumptuous. And for partners, Forrester's recommendations could be useful sales tools. But then again, Forrester kept telling companies to move to Vista before adopting Window 7, something most companies haven't done and don't plan to do.
Plus, we're not in a Microsoft-only world anymore. Even if Microsoft kills XP support and downgrade rights die quickly, there's nothing preventing IT departments from looking at, say, Linux, or moving seriously into the cloud and accessing everything through a browser running on just about any OS. Of course, either of those might be a much more expensive proposition in the long run than embracing Windows 7, but Microsoft, now more than ever, isn't the only OS game in town.
That means that Windows 7 needs to be very good -- and, by most accounts, it is. It also means that Microsoft and partners need to convince companies that Windows is still relevant, that there's a business case for Windows 7 vs. XP, and that alternatives (Linux, Mac, the cloud) are either not reliable enough or are eventually more expensive than the newest Windows OS.
So, regardless of what Forrester says, there will be more to convincing companies to migrate this time than just saying, "You're going to have to do it eventually." For the record, we believe that Windows 7 will be a big success for Microsoft and the channel. But it won't be as easy a sell as Windows usually was before Vista.
We've had tons of great tales of Windows 7 migrations come in (and I'll be responding to each of you personally at some point). Add yours to the pile at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on October 21, 20090 comments
To its credit, Microsoft is actually doing a pretty good job of putting an end to its Sidekick data-loss nightmare. If data recovery continues at this pace -- there's now a tool online that T-Mobile users can use to recover much of their data -- Sidekickgate could (and probably should) end up being mostly a non-story.
At any rate, it doesn't and never did portend the death of cloud computing.
Posted by Lee Pender on October 21, 20090 comments
Google's campaign to dethrone Microsoft Office on the desktop, which began with a few billboards in tech-heavy U.S. cities, is going global. Does this mean war? Oh, the war's been going on for a while -- but Microsoft still has control of most of the map.
Posted by Lee Pender on October 21, 20090 comments
Free-software radical Richard Stallman and a group formed by Ralph Nader want the EU to quash the proposed Oracle-Sun merger. Big surprise, right? Well, their beef is with what Oracle would do with MySQL, which is a legitimate concern, and it might make sense all around for Oracle to sell MySQL and get the deal through (unless the whole thing was only about MySQL to begin with, which we don't think it was).
So, are we sprinkling rock salt where hell froze over here and agreeing with Richard Stallman? Nah, not really. Sure, we'd like to see MySQL saved, but if Oracle's got the money and Sun is willing to sell, ol' Larry Ellison should be able to do what he wants with what he buys. That's kind of how business works.
Posted by Lee Pender on October 21, 20094 comments
It's Windows 7 week! On Thursday, Microsoft will roll out its latest operating system at an event in New York. Did you see this? Have you heard about this? Well, be informed -- it's happening!
But if you just can't wait a couple more days to get your hands on the Vista Slayer, there is a place where you can (sort of) get Windows 7 for about $3. As you might have guessed, that place is China, were software pirates have not only beaten Microsoft to the Windows 7 launch, they've also begun offering the new OS at a very competitive price.
Of course, it's not really Windows 7, but for $3, the fake version will likely sell pretty well in China. It might even get a few takers here in the U.S. And that costs Microsoft, partners and customers money. Even if your business doesn't reach Shanghai directly, the piracy taking place there is still lifting money out of your wallet -- and pretty directly, in some cases. (Remember, for one thing, that a lot of pirated Chinese software ends up in North America and Europe.)
For specifics on piracy's effect on the channel, re-read Scott Bekker's excellent RCP article from 2007 on Chinese software piracy. Piracy flits in and out of the news as authorities make arrests or Microsoft sues partners who are allegedly selling pirated software, but it's a problem that never really goes away.
The New York Times story linked above quotes IDC as saying that fake software accounted for 80 percent of all software sold in China last year (compared to about 20 percent in the U.S.). China is, of course, a huge market that's only getting bigger as the company develops technologically, so an 80-percent piracy rate is a massive challenge for vendors and U.S. and Chinese authorities alike.
And then there's this, also from the NYT story:
"Business Software Alliance, a trade association created by the software industry, said the sector had lost more than $6.6 billion in China last year to piracy."
Some of that $6.6 billion is yours, partners. With all the numbers being thrown around in bailouts and stimulus packages, a measly $6.6 billion might not have an immediate emotional impact, but it's roughly equal to about a tenth (or, actually, a bit more) of Microsoft's annual revenue for the past couple of years, which has been around $60 billion. So, it's a lot of money.
Things are getting better, though. Microsoft has dropped prices of its wares in China. Chinese authorities are actually starting to enforce anti-piracy laws that have existed for a while. Chinese courts are convicting pirates and putting them in jail.
And partners are looking out for each other -- and looking for signs of dodgy business at home and abroad. After all, a few partners have sided with the bad guys over the years, and there are very likely some out there that still do. So, keep your eye out for ridiculously low prices or markets that suddenly become hyper-competitive. And, if you think you've found a culprit, don't be afraid to take your concerns to Microsoft. Somebody there will likely listen if it's obvious that you're being serious and have some evidence to back up what you're saying.
Pirates might have beaten Microsoft to the Windows 7 punch, but they're slowly losing their grip on the software industry both in China and worldwide. It's up to all of us who abide by the law (yes, even journalists and bloggers) to stay vigilant and stay away from those $3 copies of Windows 7. They cost a lot more than that in the long run.
Have you had any experiences with piracy among your competitors or even within your own company? Tell your story at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on October 20, 20092 comments
It's the 2010 version of each product we're talking about here. For a closer look at what's going to be in both (particularly in SharePoint), take a look at Redmond magazine columnist and friend of RCPU Mary Jo Foley's take on the products.
Posted by Lee Pender on October 20, 20090 comments
Redmond's embarrassing Sidekick data-loss fiasco might still have a non-tragic ending, but the company's ongoing effort to salvage Sidekick users' lost data isn't as easy as Microsoft might have made it seem -- or perhaps even thought it would be.
The initial euphoria over reports of the data's death being greatly exaggerated has turned to something closer to cautious optimism and a bit of a call for patience among users. The whole thing got somebody at the New York Times so excited, though, that the paper busted out a Microsoft-is-dying feature that details how Microsoft will fail in the cloud and ultimately sink into irrelevance. (OK, so that's a harsh description of the story -- but not that harsh.)
Of course, the whole Sidekick fiasco is really more of a mobile problem -- one of many -- than a cloud problem for Microsoft (as we've said here before), and it may even be something a bit more sinister than just a gigantic screw-up. Microsoft has some catching up to do with Google and maybe even Amazon in terms of cloud technology, but nobody has a dominating lead in this race. In fact, the race is just beginning, and Ray Ozzie and Microsoft have as much a shot of winning it long-term as Google or anybody else does. They'll certainly be a contender.
So, New York Times, please spare us your wishful thinking that Microsoft is on its death bed. Yes, the Sidekick thing was and is a disaster, but if Microsoft really can restore users' data, the whole incident might end up going down as a footnote rather than a chapter in cloud computing's history. In any case, Microsoft will survive. Besides, is anybody in the newspaper business really in a good position to tell us all that some other company is in trouble?
Posted by Lee Pender on October 20, 20091 comments
Not cool, Microsoft. Not cool. Sneaking add-ons into Firefox that ended up messing up users' (including your editor's) browsers was a bad move. So bad, in fact, that Mozilla blocked a couple of Microsoft's under-the-table add-ons before finally working with Microsoft to at least make the .NET Framework Assistant add-on safe for use.
Next time, Microsoft, just give us a hint when you're going to do something like this (as in, mess with somebody else's product in a fairly serious way), OK? Thanks.
Posted by Lee Pender on October 20, 20090 comments