Windows Client Collapse?
Last week, I voiced a few concerns over
Gartner's
analysis of virtualization. The esteemed group argued that PC virtualization
will spell the end of "the monolithic, general-purpose operating system"
(read: Windows).
I did an analysis of Windows on the desktop and found it almost
impossible to kill. Compatibility, OEMs and the economics of Windows PCs
will keep the OS large and in charge for years to come. There's simply nothing
that can replace it. The Mac, Linux, mobile devices -- all just nibble around
the edges of the Microsoft monopoly.
Now, the Gartner gurus have another proclamation: Windows is collapsing
due to its sheer size and the only thing that can save it is virtualization
(the exact opposite of the company's first prediction). The idea is for Microsoft
to write all-new OS code and use a virtual layer to maintain backward compatibility.
It sounds interesting in theory, but these kinds of compatibility layers are
always way harder to write than you might think.
Don't these analysts even talk to each other or read each other's press releases?
And just what is going to replace Windows? The expensive Mac? Linux? Pure Web?
Tell me where I'm wrong and Gartner is right by writing [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on April 14, 2008