The Browser Business Model

This doesn't really take that much imagination, does it? What with Google Chrome lining up against IE and Firefox (and Safari, we suppose), it's clear -- and has been for a while, really -- that the forthcoming battle in the software industry won't be over software at all but over online applications, SaaS, cloud computing ... whatever you want to call it. So we're not going too far afield here. We all know that this is happening.

What we're wondering, though, is how important the browser (already a market share headache for Microsoft) is in this whole scenario. Very important, you say? Well, sure, because it's the conduit to the applications and data that rest on some far-off server. Again, in our hypothetical world, the OS is a commodity if it exists at all. Really, all we do in this future world -- and this, of course, is really possible today -- is hop on a terminal of some sort, open a browser (or just go straight into it) and get working.

Right now, in 2008, the browser itself is a big deal. Security, interface, stability -- they're all important factors that the new combatants in the browser wars are trying to improve. What we want to know is: How long will it be this way? After all, nobody really makes money off of browsers, right? They're free. And it's hard to imagine anybody paying for one now that they've been free for such a long time. There's no real browser revenue model.

So, in our brave new world, we can see the browser itself being kind of like the operating system: a commodity, or just a window (as opposed to a Window). Everything will happen in the "cloud," at the datacenter -- even the basic browsing functionality. Right? Doesn't that make sense? Surely lots of other people have observed this.

What "it" will really be about is the applications residing on a server in a data center somewhere -- the word processor, spreadsheet, video editor, security applications, whatever -- all available on a subscription basis with some level of storage. You know the stuff -- Google Apps and Office Live Workspace (sort of, although the idea of the death of client-hosted office must still scare Microsoft to death) bundled with whatever add-on applications or functionality partners can create and host or have hosted.

So, the point is this: Enjoy the new browser wars while they last because, just like the OS wars, they won't go on forever. In the post-browser-war reality, it'll be the cloud that matters, not the aircraft that gets us up there. That's why Microsoft shouldn't freak out too much about Chrome; it should figure out how to use Office to compete with Google and others on both cost and functionality in the cloud.

What's your vision for cloud computing? What role do you see the browser or the OS playing? Let us know at [email protected].

Posted by Lee Pender on September 04, 20081 comments

Exchange Has New Competition

Posted by Lee Pender on August 28, 20080 comments

Stories of Vista Bliss

But in the interest of some equal time, and because we said we would, today we're giving you positive -- or at least not screamingly negative -- e-mails about Vista. Some of these, as always, we had to edit for length, but the basic ideas are intact. Let's get started:

Richard starts us off by saying that if we don't like Vista, we shouldn't blame Microsoft...we should probably blame ourselves:

"Vista's 'failure' is a communications failure between Microsoft and its customers, between Microsoft and its partners, and mostly between Microsoft and its Tier 1 OEMs and ISVs. The entire channel was NOWHERE NEAR prepared for Vista's release. And while we see that a few unwise compromises were made between key Microsoft executives and their OEM and ISV counterparts vis-à-vis which CPUs and chipsets were 'acceptable' for the Vista experience, almost everything they baked into Vista came out of customer feedback and demand: bulletproof security, security best practices (least privilege), and a much better user experience that, regrettably, demanded better hardware.

"I'll tell you too what I don't miss: I don't miss never seeing a blue screen since I've owned Vista -- something I could never say about XP, Windows Server 2000 or 2003...or even NT 3.51 or 4.0, for that matter."

We agree that a lot of third parties dropped the ball on Vista. The extent to which Microsoft tried to work with them on holding the ball (how far can we stretch that metaphor?) is another topic of discussion altogether. Anyway, Zenner strikes a similar tone and also suggests that XP love is more like a sickness:

"Holding on to XP (especially when required to pay for 'downgrade' rights) is self-defeating, bordering on mental illness. I will agree that in its initial release, driver support was a major headache, not mention the requirement to 'finally' retire a lot of 8-, 16-, even some wholly inadequate 32-bit peripherals. The fact is, hardware as well as software were being hobbled by backward compatibility. X86-64 processors have opened up a completely new benchmark for PC performance; there is no need to continue with the arbitrary designation of workstation vs. PC. PCs, even laptops, have evolved to the point that it's almost impossible to purchase an under-powered computer anymore, yet clients (and closet Luddites) are refusing to step up to the challenge.

"The biggest complaint I still hear seems to be a lament that Vista is 'too' good. Finally, Microsoft creates what everyone was complaining about -- security, stability and defaults that start secure and allow the user to decide how much compromise he is willing to endure for connectivity and communication. Despite being given nearly everything that magazine writers, governments (national and international) and business concerns have lobbied for, we are faced with a consumer revolt, and what is it they are whining about this time? That it's too difficult having to make a few minor adjustments to reap all the benefits. That driver compatibility (which peripheral providers had been warned years ago would be needed) is somehow under the control of Microsoft. Maybe complaining to the root cause entities is not nearly as satisfying as continuing to find something, anything, to justify mistaken animus toward Microsoft."

Maybe, Zenner, there is some anti-Microsoft sentiment at work in the press (although we try to remain objective here), but XP is also a Microsoft OS and people seem to like it well enough. Sometimes familiarity breeds contempt; in this case, it seems as though the opposite is at work.

Grant, writing from South Africa (we love contributions from outside the U.S., by the way), suggests that hanging on to XP is not a good idea...and that Vista is not so bad:

"I have deployed a number of Vista Business machines with very few problems. Applications are catching up fast (except those that still write in Cobol). By downloading the latest drivers from the PC manufacturers' sites, SP1 downloads gracefully. The users seem to like the new interface and features. From my point of view (IT administrator), Vista is good, because it is so much more secure than XP.

"Recommending to customers that they 'downgrade' Vista to XP is irresponsible and short-sighted (as well as lazy and selfish, because they know XP well, so it's easier to maintain, and they don't have to learn how to maintain the new OS (yet)).

"If Windows 7 comes out in 2010, add two years for stabilisation and user acceptance, we're looking at running XP for the next four years. You've got to be joking! Imagine what Apple (Cougar, Lion or whatever) will look like by that time. What would Microsoft's credibility be then?"

Good question, Grant. We're sure some folks in Redmond are wondering the same thing. Or maybe cloud computing will make the OS mostly irrelevant and make the browser the only environment we need.

Finally, Dave's just happy all around with Vista:

"My system starts up, honestly, in about half the time XP took. Task Manager -- take a look; it's been greatly enhanced. All the extra apps that are included are great additions for novice and power users. The organization of the Start Menu is wonderful. There's nothing worse than looking at three columns of installed programs on an XP machine. Oh, and if you like Apple cutesy, the dream scene desktop background rocks. Honestly, after two weeks, I'm cruising around Vista without a hiccup."

More power to you, Dave. We're glad it's working out for you.

We're still looking for Vista tales; we'll run them -- positive and negative -- from time to time here. Send them to [email protected]. If you haven't seen yours yet, don't give up. It might still appear. And thanks to everybody who has contributed.

Posted by Lee Pender on August 28, 20081 comments

And Your Microsoft Spokesperson Is...

Brad gets us off to a potentially controversial start:

"I suggest one word, or really one letter: W. After all, he'll be looking for work, anyway. Maybe the copy could read something like this: Hi, do you know me? Or maybe I should ask, 'Do you loathe me?' As the leader of the free world, I had to make some tough, unpopular decisions. So that's why Microsoft asked me to be their spokesman..."

Brad, we try to stay apolitical here at RCPU, aside from when we're blasting the European Union (and we figure that it's fair game). So, without making a political comment, we'll just say...we love this and find it hilarious. Tough, unpopular decisions, indeed. He'd certainly get attention.

Sam chimes in with an interesting prospect:

"Morgan Freeman. Why not? He has 'The Bucket List,' and he has been God."

Hmm, now that's intriguing. Seinfeld might be a relic these days, but Morgan Freeman has a certain aura of timelessness and that familiar voice. He also inspires a sense of confidence and familiarity that Vista could use. (Although it strikes us that he's surely doing lots of voice-overs already.) We're still sort of leaning toward W, though, with Brad as script writer.

Finally, Richard has a one-word answer: "Satan."

Heh, well, Richard, your e-mail made us laugh out loud. That's got to be worth something. We're not sure what, exactly...but something. Anyway, thanks to all of y'all for taking the time to respond.

Have any more suggestions? Keep sending them to [email protected].

Posted by Lee Pender on August 28, 20080 comments

Microsoft Making Database Gains

Posted by Lee Pender on August 27, 20080 comments

IT Spending on the Rise

Posted by Lee Pender on August 27, 20080 comments

Vista Picking Up Steam?

Well, maybe so. But we've heard this sort of thing before, haven't we? Vista's always just around the corner from breaking out and becoming the next XP (just as XP eventually became the next Windows 2000). If it's true that one-third of Vista licenses end up being downgraded to XP, we won't hold our breath on Vista taking over the world.

Really, though, we're just using this entry to tell you that tomorrow we'll be running positive -- yes, positive -- comments about Vista. (Hey, we told you we'd run them if we got them.) So, send your thoughts to [email protected].

Oh, and also tomorrow -- in what should be an electrifying Reader Feedback issue of RCPU (you just have to love late August) -- we'll be running your suggestions on which celebrity would make the ideal Microsoft spokesperson. So shoot those our way, too, at [email protected].

Posted by Lee Pender on August 27, 20080 comments

Just Call It Red Hack

Posted by Lee Pender on August 26, 20080 comments

Citrix Unleashes XenApp 5

Posted by Lee Pender on August 26, 20080 comments

'Cool' Still a Four-Letter Word in Redmond

But we're weird that way here. Your editor DVRs old episodes of "WKRP in Cincinnati" (although he already owns all 90 episodes on DVD with the original music -- just with poor video quality) and watches them with the same gusto with which he downs a full Southern (or English) breakfast. On a brief road trip this past weekend, more than a few Creedence Clearwater Revival songs figured among the tunes of choice -- and we still have no idea who the Jonas Brothers are, although we keep seeing their images on T-shirts. Just today, we read that someone named Daddy Yankee had endorsed John McCain for president and wondered why George Steinbrenner would be so interested in the race for the White House.

So, in recruiting Jerry Seinfeld to do an ad campaign for Vista, Microsoft has hit a nostalgic nerve with this segment of the 30-something market -- although it's not as though we can't see Jerry at his best twice a day in reruns of his sitcom. (And, really, George was the funny one, anyway.) We're officially, gleefully out of touch with pop culture here at RCPU -- a fact you won't have missed if you've ever paid attention to our rotting cultural references -- and we like it that way.

It's too bad, though, that we're not the audience Microsoft is trying to reach with its "Windows, Not Walls" (our response: "What?") campaign. And, in case you've been sequestered without TV or Internet since last Thursday, nobody else likes the idea of Seinfeld pitching Vista, either. There are approximately 4 billion blog posts about the topic floating out there now -- 99 percent of them negative, from what we can tell (there's a pretty representative wrap-up here).

We've said before that Microsoft needs to stop trying to be cool, but here we have to say it again. Redmond, Apple roasted you with those Mac Guy ads, and everybody knows it. Apple is cool, and everybody knows it. And you're not -- and never will be. Because being the gorilla in the market isn't cool. Being the enterprise's OS of choice isn't cool. Being Steve Ballmer's company (as opposed to one run by Zen master Steve Jobs) is definitely not cool. But being all those things has been pretty darn profitable and probably will be for the foreseeable future.

Vista's problems were a lack of application compatibility and onerous hardware requirements -- plus the fact that many people didn't see a reason to ditch XP for Vista. A lack of coolness was -- and is -- way down the list of factors holding Vista back from mainstream public acceptance. But still, Microsoft is spending $300 million to try to fix the wrong problem...and Redmond can't even get that right, passing over the stars of the moment (Ben Stiller? Seth Rogin? Steve Carell? Chris Rock?) for a guy who, while likeable enough, conjures up memories of the era of enormous cell phones and molasses-slow, dial-up Internet connections.

Again, we don't mean to pile on here (although we don't have much better to do). But Microsoft, enough is enough. Embrace your nerdiness, or throw us a total curve with somebody like Carlos Mencia or Bill Engvall (or a woman, for heaven's sake -- what a radical concept) as your spokesperson. But don't try to be cool. It's still not working.

Who would your idea Microsoft spokesperson be? Tell us at [email protected].

Posted by Lee Pender on August 26, 20081 comments

SBS Takes Next Step Toward Launch

Posted by Lee Pender on August 26, 20080 comments

More Tales of Vista Woe

"I am a Microsoft partner; however, I cannot in good conscience support Vista. Even after Service Pack 1, Vista does not network properly with XP. In addition, its file structure seems to lose files and folders for no apparent reason. Vista is also far slower than XP at opening programs as well as opening folders. Most of my small-business accounts have refused to switch to Vista. I am now custom-building machines with XP for them. When my supply of XP runs out, I do not know if I can sell them Vista systems. I have lost some home users to Macs due to my former customers' frustration with Vista.

"Microsoft must improve the networkability of Vista and fix the lost file problems and speed issues. If they cannot, they should bring back XP. To save face, they can make some graphic changes and rename it to XP Pro Advanced."

Lost some customers to the Mac, huh? More on that in a minute. For now, we like the idea of XP Pro Advanced.

Nat sounds a lot like Ronald in his e-mail:

"I have tried Vista personally, and I have installed it on a few of my customers' computers. I gave up on it myself when I couldn't print to the lower paper tray of my office printer and when my mailing label documents would not open in Office 2007. I am an avid user of the Windows Explorer in XP, and I like it. The version in Vista is awful; I kept getting errors when I was trying to move groups of files. The Control Panel also had me baffled with all of the re-named items. Customers also complained, and I think that I only have one that has stuck it out -- the rest have had me take them back to XP. None of my commercial customers has switched; I still sell them XP on new machines that I deliver."

Nat, we hear you...but the question is, does Microsoft? Maybe it will if Rusty's e-mail is a sign of things to come:

"You said that Apple and Linux are not any real threat to Microsoft in the enterprise. Well, it is interesting that I am seeing other articles that are talking about how Apple is starting to get enterprise penetration. Also, when I sit out front of the Apple store here, I see Macs going out the door several per hour. Also, Apple is posting amazing increases in sales compared to this quarter last year.

"I think people don't understand the ground swell that is starting to happen. I work in computers and have for more than 20 years. I am at the point now that we are starting to change all the computers in the house to Macs. I know several co-workers who are making the switch, too. In the one of the most recent Reader's Digest magazines, there was a listing of the things true computer people will tell you to fix your computer problems, and one of them was to buy a Mac. Although I don't see Microsoft toppling any time soon (people have been predicting similar things for IBM forever, too), I do see it continuing to lose market share to Apple (and Linux) month by month. I also think that Vista is one of the biggest reasons for the migration now, kind of like the final straw."

Rusty, great comments. Let's be clear about what we meant regarding Microsoft not being threatened. From what we're reading (and what you're reading, too, apparently), yes, Macs are making an impact in the enterprise and taking market share from Microsoft. (In the consumer space, its more traditional realm, the Mac seems even stronger.)

By saying that the Mac wasn't a serious threat, we meant that we don't see Microsoft's market share getting hacked down to, say, 50 or even 75 percent any time soon. It's still 90-plus, as far as we know, which gives it a long way to fall before Microsoft has to really start freaking out. There are just so many companies with big investments in Windows that it's hard to imagine Apple or Linux eating away at Microsoft's enterprise dominance in any serious way in the next few years.

However, we can easily imagine the SMB market moving toward the Mac and Linux, and if Windows 7 is as big a dud as Vista, some bigger shops might look in those directions as well. So, we take your point (and you did say that you don't see Microsoft toppling any time soon) -- Windows is on the way down (for now, largely thanks to Vista), and other alternatives are on the way up. We'd agree with that. We just don't think that the change will be as much revolution as evolution. And we're not ready to count Microsoft out...yet. By the way, we love the Mac at RCPU, in case we haven't mentioned that in the past.

Thanks to all who contributed to this topic. It remains one of our favorites. We had a couple of late e-mails that we couldn't sneak in, but we'll try to get to those later. And we're always open for more Vista e-mails at [email protected].

Posted by Lee Pender on August 21, 20086 comments