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Microsoft: Everything's Fine With Vista -- Really

Government agencies have put the kibosh on it, and even Steve Ballmer tried to get investors to calm down about it. Just today, a product manager from one of Microsoft's bigger ISV security partners (OK, it was Symantec) told us that most companies won't even seriously start looking at switching to it until the third or fourth quarter of this year (and that actually sounded a little optimistic compared with other projections we've heard).

But Microsoft wants you to know that everything is fine, just fine, with Vista. It's great, actually. In fact, it's selling at double the pace at which XP sold when it first came out! Of course, the PC market is a lot bigger than it was when XP came out, and all of those free Vista upgrades that folks got when they bought XP over the holidays last year figure into Microsoft's numbers. Still, why dwell on such tiny details? Hooray for Vista!

OK, enough of the snarky comments. The fact is that most of us will run Vista eventually.

It's debatable whether Vista will be the last great operating system from Microsoft before everything moves to some sort of Google-ish Web-based service (or to Microsoft's combined software-service model). However, the strong likelihood remains that Vista will be the default OS for many, probably most, of the world's computer users by the time the next version of Windows comes out. Mac OS is as great as ever (although maybe not as great as advertised -- see the next entry), but it's not a serious threat to Windows' market share, especially in the enterprise. And Linux, while gaining momentum, is still a splintered OS that won't benefit from the continued lack of organization (and now, thanks to the Microsoft-Novell deal, infighting) inside the open source community. So, Vista it is -- or will be.

For now, though, Vista has to be a disappointment. Given how long it took to release and how much of a financial boost Microsoft needs from it right now, Vista just isn't building the momentum or gaining the kind of market traction that Redmond would like to see. Maybe the main problem with Vista is that XP is actually too good -- or at least too mature and familiar. Those stringent Vista hardware requirements don't help, either. And despite the half-a-billion dollars Microsoft is spending to promote Vista, the new OS hasn't exactly captured the public's imagination.

A Gateway official in the Cnet story linked above talks about how he's seen a "pretty good reaction" to the release of Vista. That seems to be a common response to the new OS. In terms of functionality, sales and interest from consumers and companies, it's -- you know -- pretty good. Not great, not bad, just OK. You can almost hear shoulders shrugging with apathy as people make these statements. Vista isn't a disaster, but it's not exactly generating the "wow" Microsoft hoped to see.

Have you upgraded to Vista? What's your attitude toward the new OS now that it's been out for a little while? Tell me at lpender@rcpmag.com.

Posted by Lee Pender on March 27, 2007 at 6:53 PM


Reader Comments

Tue, Apr 24, 2007 graham uk

I would just like to respond to the general attitude of "You'll buy Vista eventually, you really don't have a choice."

"the strong likelihood remains that Vista will be the default OS for many, probably most, of the world's computer users by the time the next version of Windows comes out."
.. 2 questions:
Q1. When do you expect the next Windows to come out?
A1a: In the next 5-10 years, given the time of the last release.
A1b: In the next year or two, since MS said it would speed up releases.
In either of these scenarios this will be a disaster.
If they are planning a release very soon they will wipe out even more cash on marketing and the appearance will be, "We have a new Windows please ditch Vista and buy the new one (again)" which will go down like a lead balloon!
In the second scenario the investors will have fled since Vista was riding a promise of a more streamlined release cycle.

Ether way Microsoft can't really win.

The best they can do is try a new release in 3-4 years.

In the same period most of the Linux distribution companies will have had about 6-8 major release cycles.

Can you imagine how optimised and refined any OS would be after that many releases.
Especially given the explosion of activity for products like Ubuntu.

And do you really think everyone will have Vista by the next 3-4 years. No. They will make XP last as long as they can before being forced to upgrade.
For new business IT sales mid last year that will be at least 5 years or they will not be able to sustain the IT budget.

PC's aren't mobile phones. You don't get them free with a purchase of Vista Home Basic. They cost real IT budget. You make them last.

Q2: Are you, Lee Pender, going to buy Vista?
A2a: “Yes, in fact I'm using it right now”
A2b: “No, I will wait until the dust settles and perhaps get one later when SP1 comes out. Maybe”

The first indicates you are an “early adopter”, which means you probably don't see the IT world the same as the IT manager or CTO. As it “the bottom line”. Your probably using a freebie, early beta or sample product. You definitely didn't pay for it.
The second: You understand that Vista isn't anything amazing, just the next Windows nothing more. No giant leaps in OS technology. Very much SSDD or SSD-OS. The interface is nice and fun to play with, but that's about it.
You said it: apathy.

This is as sure a death knell for any product. How can you possibly expect a product to gain the ubiquity you speak of after a luke warm (at best) reception.

Again, Linux, on the other hand, is receiving quite a bit of attention. These haven't yet turned into real sales figures but non the less there will be a few stern meetings at Redmond because of it.

And Steve Jobs has been pressing that “PC's are boring and buggy” nerve again with quite an ingenious TV campaign.

Also a few really big players in the market are having a change of heart about Microsoft as a company and moving alliances.

Look at Dell!
"Would you like Vista, SuSE or Ubuntu on you new laptop?"

The future is by no means cast in stone.

Fri, Mar 30, 2007 Anonymous Anonymous

To add to the above comment, I have noticed numerous news agencies reporting that the sales of vista is double of that xp; however, then they report that total number of licenses of vista is 20 million copies vs. 17 million for xp for same two month time frame. This is not double the sales --- also as previous comment indicated --- the 20 million figure also includes almost 4 months of previous sales where vista was offered as free upgrade to xp (making the total number of months 6 and not 2). Thus, one would have add 4 months (for a total of 6 months) of xp sales to the current comparison --- and also adjust for fact that pc sales are higher now than when xp was initially released --- from a general stand point --- i find the numbers released by microsoft somewhat suspicious --- perhaps a better comparison can be made a year from now.

Fri, Mar 30, 2007 Anonymous Anonymous

You state briefly that the sales included the free upgrades from xp to vista prior to the release of vista. These free upgrades have existed since October of 2006 and thus include 4 additional months of sales prior to the vista being released at the end of january 2007. If one takes this into account plus the fact that this pre-vista sales include the holidays where sales are usually at the highest, then it appears to me that the sales are actually much lower than xp (more than 66% lower). This is a quite significant decrease in sales vs xp.

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